Thursday, December 22, 2005

$820. That's right $820. Now my pro friend Eston has won 5x this amount in one night plenty of times. But I'm a grinder . . . a true grinder. The stakes I play are a small fraction of the stakes Eston plays. However, this is quite an impressive day for someone at these stakes. A person needs $1200 to play successfully at the level that I play. I just made 2/3's of that in one frickin day. I've never seen anything like it, I know Eston has, but I sure as hell haven't.

Anyways this day has inspired me to write a poker intensive post on the biggest pot I ever won in Limit Holdem, and how I didn't actually make that much money in the long term. BTW this post could be quite boring even to people who like reading about poker. I know you are probably going to read it anyways especially since I warned you not to, so I apologize for wasting your time in advance.

I'm on the Big Blind with 7c2c. 3 people limp, and the small blind completes. Pot=5SB, $10. With this hand I get a favorable flop like 12% of the time. So I clearly lose money right away. Flop is 5c4c3c. Flopped a flush with the 6c and Ac to give me the stone cold nuts straight flush. All 5 of us cap it. Turn:2s. I'm sure it improved my opponents with the 4 card straight, but unforunately for them it only hurt them. We cap again, all 5! Now I must fear a bigger flush, however remember, no preflop raise - this decreases the number of hands that could beat me. River: Jh. This card means nothing. I bet, intending to just call a raise, and one guy folds, but the others call. Leading to a $143 , 38BB pot. (BB-big bet or the number of bets put in the pot). My friends showdown (6c, Ah)(Ac, 9s)(3d, 3s) a straight, a straight with a good flush draw, and trips. Turns out the two cards for the stone cold nuts, Ac, 6c, were in my opponents hands.

On the flop the trips beat me to make a full house 38% of the time, and the flush draw improves 29% of the time, the other guy is dead. (These calculations assume that the guy that folded doesn't hold anybody's outs. He sucked so he could have had anything - probably the Kc for a flush draw. And they take into account all the cards that everybody showed down, and that only 41 cards are left in the deck). So that makes me the winner a whopping 33%. So .33*25SB-5SB=3.25 SB. I make $6.50, long term on the flop, not the $40 that my opponents put in. Explanation of the calculation - I win a certain percent of the time multiplied by the total number of bets put into the pot minus the number of bets I put in the pot.

On the turn, things are looking MUCH better. Trips improve 25% of the time, and the flush draw improves 15%, making me the winner 60% of the time. So .60*25BB-5BB=10BB . I make $40 long term on the turn, not the $80 that my opponents put in. Not bad, and by not bad I mean very very good.

On the river everybody is dead, and I make 3BB, $12, all the time.

Well, I made $113 that time, but long term, I'm not winning this pot all the time. Plus there are certain occasions where I'm the one drawing slim. In this occassion, I had 4 idiots in the pot. Given the texture of the board, I'm certain I'm live often enough to cap that turn. Plus it was 3-bet to me, so why the hell not cap it.

Anyways, hope I didn't bore you too much.

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